The Thinker's Toolkit

I was recently forced to shuffle around material on my many bookshelves (it's turned into an apartment-wide game of Tetris) and I came across a book I had completely forgotten about. When I was younger, it completely changed my outlook on the world.

The Thinker's Toolkit: 14 Powerful Techniques for Problem Solving

How I came to own it is a happy story, at least for me. At UofT, one of the mandatory second-year courses was something called Analysis for Decision Making and Control which was really a course about problem solving (it's now estimated that 3.5% of all tuition fees goes to the committee for the invention of pretentious course names.)

The typical textbook for courses in this program was $120-150 per book and you usually had to buy four or five a year. This one was quite shocking because it was the only book for the course and you could get it for less than $25. You could even get it at Indigo (Amazon had not yet taken over the book world - but never mind that; I'm giving away how old I am).

The book, written by a CIA analyst, discusses different techniques for... well... solving problems. While those were interesting, I am a hardcore math nerd and systematic ways of breaking down problems were really nothing new.

The revelation came to me when the book digresses into evaluating explanations. Think of a murder mystery: five suspects and a pile of clues (evidence) and you're trying to reason out whodunnit. It's no surprise to learn that most have no idea how to evaluate evidence properly.

Look at the evidence...

...comes up often in discussion. Whether it's psychic phenomena, ghosts, conspiracy theorists, or theists - there are lots of people who hold some very silly and untenable beliefs. And most people would claim they hold these beliefs because of some sort of evidence.  But if your tools for evaluating evidence are rubbish then where does that get you?

Here's the method in brief. It's misleading to think of evidence which "supports" a hypothesis. I'll explain why in a moment. It's better to separate the evidence into two categories: consistent and inconsistent.

Inconsistent means it's implausible [1] for both your hypothesis to be true and this piece of evidence to exist. For example, if you can't find your iPod and you think your son borrowed it, that would be implausible if your son had been away at university for the past four months and therefore inconsistent. Consistent, then, is just the opposite.

What's crucial is that one piece of evidence can be consistent with multiple hypotheses. If you see something strange in the sky at night, it could be a UFO, a weather balloon, a plane or Iron Man. The evidence (you saw something strange) is consistent with multiple interpretations and doesn't push you towards one over the other. For this reason, when determining which explanation is the "best", consistent evidence doesn't count. You can all but throw it out.

The explanation that is the most likely is not the one with the most consistent evidence. That is probably the most counterintuitive notion in problem solving. Instead, the most likely explanation is the one with the least inconsistent evidence. It's not the one with the most support; instead it's the one with the fewest problems that you pick. [2]

You can (and should) take this a step further and actually go looking for inconsistent evidence. Think "what would prove me wrong?" and see if you can find it. Naturally, no one likes to do this. Who could be eager to be wrong? Apparently Lawrence Krauss:

The two most exciting states to be in are confused and wrong. Because then you know there's a chance you might learn something.

That has to be one of the greatest mind-opening experiences of my life. Although, I've never done drugs, so I don't know what I'm missing. It was so powerful, that I can explain all of this from memory, I don't even need to crack open the book again ten years later to remember what it said. I'm also fortunate to have come across it at the right point in my life where I could actually make use of it.

Looking back at the book in hindsight, it can also be used as a great primer for magic. All of the little pitfalls and traps that people prone to stumble into when solving a problem (like, say, trying to figure out how a piece of magic works) seem to be universal and understanding them makes it even easier to lead people astray and perform some really incredible things.

[1] If you want to actually work out with some rigour what "plausible" is you'd need do some kind of Bayesian analysis. The best resource for this I've come across is Proving History by Richard Carrier.

[2] An even cooler explanation of this concept is provided by Richard Feynman in the Messenger Lectures - generously made available for free online by Bill Gates. In particular, the final lecture on "Seeking New Laws"

Show and Tell Alexander Bell

I love the idea of integrating technology with performance art. The trouble comes when it happens in a superficial way and the audience leaves with a quaint feeling saying things like "that's clever" or "that's cute" like a six year old who has just repurposed a piece of kitchenware as a space helmet. Show and Tell Alexander Bell is not that.

Part of the 2013 Summerworks festival, it's a stunning example of... of... I have no idea how to complete that sentence because I've never seen anything quite like it. The title doesn't tell you nearly enough. There is dance - lots of it. Also some singing, not very much. Comedy, certainly. And plentiful and interesting visual elements which seem to counterpoint the surrealism of the underlying metaphor. (I've always wanted to work that into a sentence!) And there's even a magic trick or three in there for good measure.

It certainly shows us that there's is a wide open road ahead for integrating technology and art.

If you are in Toronto over the next week, go.

Two things which are important to remember:

1. Remember to bring your cell phone.
2. You'll never look at phone sex the same way again.

Show & Tell Alexander Bell

@ The Summerworks Performance Festival

by Ars Mechanica Theatre

Select performances August 8 - 18 at the Lower Ossington Theatre

Tickets $15

You can see more the of the 2013 Summerworks Program here.

Fringe Friends

I spent a good chunk of last weekend in Hamilton at the Hamilton Fringe Festival. Having participated in the Hamilton Fringe last year, I was hoping to bump into old friends... and I did! One of the productions that made a hit last year was Harold Pinter's Betrayal. It's a wonderful story which was so appealing to me because it took place backwards in time (Like a love story version of Memento, written thirty years earlier.) It was also a very large ensemble that went all out in terms of set and lighting design (compared with some productions, like mine, which consist of only a performer, a stage manager and a technician.) It was also one of the festival's longer productions at ninety minutes.

This year, the same company took another shot at an even larger production: Death and a Maiden. This a seriously dark and chilling play, definitely not intended for children. I loved it and the almost-two-hours flew by. While the Hamilton Fringe is over, Death and a Maiden is appearing this weekend in Toronto at the "One More Night Festival" at The Box Friday and Sunday night. If you have the chance, go check them out:

Death and the Maiden Friday, August 2 @ 9:00 PM Sunday, August 4 @ 7:00 PM Tickets $10 - limited seating

My only regret is that because of the late shows, I missed the official Fringe Talk-Show at the Baltimore House and the presentation of the coveted Larry Awards. Oh well... there's always next year.

Michael Weber's Zombie Workshop

A free bonus chapter that didn't make it in to Ninety-Nine Fabrications Volume 2. (So if you haven't read it - here's a taste of what you're missing. Special thanks to Canada's Magic for leaking this for us. Now you can have the unabridged version with photographic illustrations.

A Report from the P. Howard Lyons Ring of the International Brotherhood of Magicians, Ring 99, Toronto

While we may occasionally pretend to be men (and even women) of our word, our illustrious membership has less collective willpower than Augustus Gloop in a room full of Wonka Bars.

Earlier this year, as a result of a rather vague controversy, we vowed to send our beloved Ring to the grave and ne'er speak of it again. We thought we had succeeded. But when Michael Weber sent word that he would be in town (for reasons we are unable to relate here as they are so secret we have yet to determine them) and was interested in doing a workshop, we rose like zombies and gathered to feast on the contents of his magnificent and delicious brain.

This was no small order as the weekend he has selected was not only the long weekend celebrating our country's founding (uncreatively named Canada Day - Max Maven and Allan Slaight could have done better), but also the glorious orgasmic climax to Pride Week, which is always enjoyed most enthusiastically in Toronto. Nevertheless, we forewent the excessive indulgence in alcohol, fireworks and public nudity and assembled at the usual place. We were not disappointed for our efforts.

The ex-president (James Alan) accompanied by another James (James Harrison), and Keith Brown (recently named Toronto's Best Magician in a silly little contest held outside of Toronto to save on parking and avoid both traffic and credibility) rushed over from their fabulous performance at the gay pride installment of Abracadabaret (Canada's only variety show dedicated to magic, mystery and to-die-for shoes) on the other side of town to not miss any of the mind-blowingness. Two underaged attendees even managed to secure fake IDs to gain entry to our secret speakeasy-cum-clubhouse for the event.

Mr. Weber did not disappoint. He offered a marvelous assortment of practical, commercial and diabolically clever card magic, money magic, mentalism, and personal grooming accessories. We cannot divulge the contents of this super-secret workshop as we have all been sworn to secrecy. The penalty for violating this solemn oath is being forced to watch certain unnamed members of the city's other ring perform all of Ben Train's unpublished material. Twice. They would also be made to judge next year's Chasing Dovetails Bingo tournament. We are not permitted to  explain that he shared the stories  behind two of the long uncredited Vernon and Miller items from Kaplan and Expert Card Technique. We can say he taught his own mischievous and devious twists on three items hidden in the pages of the recent Graham-Diaconis book on math and magic. Weber closed out the night by demonstrating a small non-card treasure he unearthed in a letter written by Charles Jordan. Suffice it to say that we were all thoroughly delighted and will be keeping our yaps shut.

The special meeting room also features a VIP viewing gallery at the back to which the ex-president, Chicago's David Solomon and Aspen's Eric Mead were banished to prevent them from causing too much trouble. To keep the peanut gallery quiet, a second, younger more vertically-challenged Mr. Weber held court. Due to a strategically timed nap (and apparently a better fake ID than any of us had ever seen), young Master Weber was able to share the real work on several captivating iPad apps well past the point any sensible person would consider bedtime. The legumes on the periphery did manage to poke their heads up occasionally as Weber the senior got around to what we might call "the good bits" which happened what we may call "often".

Following the official programming there were additional things which cannot be explained and an informal session with Eric Mead which deteriorated rapidly into philosophical discussions of gastronomy, techniques for setting things on fire and looking at baby pictures.

So having had our fix, we put yet another silver bullet in the chamber and return the illustrious Ring 99 to oblivion... until the next guy comes through town.

To read more about the adventures of Ring 99, see Ninety Nine Fabrications Volume 1 and Volume 2.